Failure Analysis has over 30 Years in Predictive Analytics, generating predictions for certainty.
We use predictive analytics to change from probabilities to certainties for unwanted events in today's reactive paradigm that exists in a wide variety of industries to a preventive paradigm - eliminating surprise and undesirable catastrophic events including premature failures.
Our Proprietary PHM (Prognostics and Health Management) and CBM (Condition-Based Maintenance) Technologies use Common, Analog and Digital Telemetry and/or Test Data Generated During Manufacturing or Certification Processes and/or from Board Level and System Level and/or Data from the Field to Achieve Success.
The Prognostic Analysis in PHM, is a Natural Evolutionary Step from the Diagnostic Analysis and Failure Analysis processes, that are Completed on Products and Equipment to Increase Reliabilty.
* Probability Analysis is valid only for behavior that is both instantaneous and random (a.k.a. the Markov property), which is only a academic concept and this behavior does not exist. There is only behavior that we choose, for a variety of reasons, to not understand and quantify and so people, companies and organizations choose to use highly inaccurate, but available probability analysis with results from stochastic (fictional) equations for quantitive values of important parameters.
WE USE COMMERCIALLY AVAILABLE DATA PROCESSING AND DISPLAY TOOLS AT YOUR FACTORY AND IN THE FIELD TO LOWER MANUFACTURING & PRODUCTION COSTS AND INCREASE PRODUCT/SYSTEM SAFETY, SERVICEABILITY, MAINTAINABILITY, AVAILABLILITY AND RELIABILITY TO A LEVEL BELIEVED TO BE IMPOSSIBLE.
FOR OUR CUSTOMERS
PHM by Failure Analysis, Offers Companies and Organisations 100% Mission Success for Small and Large, New and Legacy Systems that are Either Too Expensive or Too Important To Fail While Removing Reliance on Probability Reliability Analysis (PRA), Monte Carlo Runs and Quality Control Programs such as Six-Sigma that are used for the same Reasons.
We Developed and Applied our Predictive Algorythms Initially on Boeing's Global Positioning System Space and Ground Systems While on Contract to the U.S. Air Force's Global Positioning System (GPS) Program Office in Los Angeles Ca. After a 26-Year Research Effort to Explain the Cause and Remedy (PHM) of Premature Equipment/Product Failures that Occur Frequently after Extensive and Exhaustive Factory Testing/Certification.
We then Adapted PHM to the Logistical Needs of Ground, Air and Space Servicable Systems for Replacing Routine/Reactive Maintenance and Preventive/Predictive Maintenance with the Reliability Centered-Condition-Based Maintenenance (CBM) Technology. (Please see our technical publications page).
Below is a Portable, $1,000.00 Prognostic Analysis System for Test/Certification Data Interface, Data Collection, Processing and Display using our Proprietary Predictive Algorithms in MatLab Software for Field Use
Below is a $5,000.00 Prognostic Analysis Test Rack for Factory Test and/or Certification Equipment Console for Factory Data Interface, Data Acquisition, Conversion, Processing and Display Functions using our Proprietary, Predictive Algorithms in MatLab Software for both Newly Redesigned and Legacy Equipment and Products.
We Offer Choices for Creating and Collecting the Engineering Data for Processing with our Proprietary, Predictive algorithms from Legacy Products/Systems as well as New PHM-Based Products, Including: the SAE, Integrated Vehicle Health Monitoring (IVHM), Aerospace Industry Telemetry such as Analog and Serial Digital, Digital and Discrete Telemetry, the Supervisory, Control, Data Acquisition, Display and Analysis (SCADA) and the Cost Savings (below) from Reliability Centered, Condition Based Maintenance (CBM) Programs for Leveraging "Measured" Product Reliability with Certainty and 100% Product Availability.
Below is the $300M Lockheed Martin/U.S. Air Force F-35 Joint Strike Fighter Designed Around both PHM for Measured Reliability and CBM Program for Removing the Man in the Loop, Reducing Logistical and O&M Complexity and Costs
Manufaturing, Test and End-Product Equipment Designed in a CBM Environment Allows for 24/7 Factory Manufacturing and Production in a 100% Reliability Paradigm and Quantifying End Prodct Relaibility in Certainties, Devoid of Probability Analysis and Montecarlo Runs Used for Decades to Quantify End Product Quality, Relaibility and Risk in Values Contrived Using Stochastic Equations.
Below is One of 40 $85M Boeing/Air Force GPS Block II and IIA Satellites that Resulted from the Prognostic Analysis Completed on the Boeing Block I Satellites by the Engineering Team Led by the President of Failure Analysis
We Used PHM Successfully Across a Wide Variety of Industries Allowing Our Customers to Identify the Products with Parts that Fail Prematurely with 100% Certainty for Replacement before Sale or Delivery. With Parts Suppliers Promising a Few of their Parts will Fail Prematurely, PHM Identifies them Before they get to the Customer or Out the Factory Door.
Below is an Artist Concept for the U.S. Air Force's Global Positioning System Constellation of Medium Earth Orbiting Satellites using a Large Number of Active and Spare Satellites to Provide World Wide Navigation Coverage that Won Funding by DoD by using PHM (Predictive Analytics) Developed by the President of Failure Analysis (circa 1980).
Below is an Artists Concept for the $700M NASA GSFC/U.C. Berkeley Space Science Laboratory EUVE Telescope and Sister Ship to the NASA Hubble Space Telescope that Used a Prognsotic Analysis by the President of Failure Analysis to Close its 24/7 Mission Control Center at the Center for EUV Astrophysics in Berkeley CA and Extend its Science Mission of Galactic Observations by 8 Years.
With Over 35 Years Experience Applying Predictive Algorithms and Predictive Science in a 100% Certainty Environment, Achieving Zero False Positives and Zero False Negatives, Our Proprietary PHM and CBM (Embedded) Data Driven, Model-Based and Hybrid Predictive Algorithms have been (Space-Flight) Proven Across a Wide Variety of Industries Including the IC, Telecommunications, Aircraft and the Space Industries.
Below is One of the 10 $90M SSL/Intelsat 7 Commercial, Geostationary Communications Series of Satellites that were the First Commercial Satellites Designed by the President of Failure Analysis for use with a PHM and Prognostic Analysis'
Using our Proprietary, Data-Driven and Model-Based Predictive Algorithms, We Predict with 100% Certainty, Future Events Such as Premature Equipment/Product Failures, Mental Illness, Disease, Earthquakes as well as Criminal Behavior such as Terrorism.
We Accomplish this by Completing a Prognostics Analysis using Commercially Available Analytical Software or Customer Provided Analytical Software Systems Such as MatLab at the Product Factory during and/or after Final Factory Test or Certification; at the Factory during and/or after Acceptance Testing; at the launch pad as well as on the Launch Vehicle and/or Spacecraft on their way to Space during Launch Operations or in-orbit for Entire Operational Life of the Spacecraft or Earth Mover.
We Also offer Education and Training to Management and Engineering Personnel in PHM and CBM Technologies. Our Goal is to Educate All Industries that Probability Relaibaility Analysis has Always Been and Will Always Be the Wrong Tool for Quantifying and Improving Product and/or System Reliability.
We can Upgrade Your Manufacturing and Test "Reactive" Product Reliability Paradigm that Achieves a 10% to 25% Product Returns to a New Predictive or Preventive Paradigm Offerring 100% Certainty to Achieve Less than 5% Product Returns.
We Provide, Previously Unachievable Product reliability Improvement using Industry Standard Approaches for the Creation, Generation and Collection and Processing of the Information Already Available at most Factories/Facilities to Provide Certainty in Many Aspects for Either New or Legacy Products and Systems.
As Contractors and Suppliers to NASA's Lunar Mission, Manned Space Missions, Space Science, Earth Resource Environmental Monitoring, Geostationary Weather Space Missions and the Largest U.S. Air Force"s Operational Space Mission, GPS and Air Force Space and Ground Missions Critical to the United States Defense, We Achieved a Perfect Record in the Design of the Data Acquisition Systems Needed and the Resulting Predictions from Them.
OUR NEW DoD CONTRACTING VEHICLE
Failure Analysis has partnered with InSiTech Incorporated that is located at the Picatinny Arsenal Applied Research Campus in New Jersey and China Lake Technologies LLC to offer our customers a contract instrument for fast prototyping as soon as 6 months. InSiTech acts as an intermediary to access U.S. Government and military laboratories and facilities under formal Test Services and Commercial Services Agreements.
As a past member of the NASA Future in Space Operations (FISO) Coloquium and current member of the Silicon Valley innovative group of companies, we utilize our space-flight proven data-driven predictive algorithms and InSitech's contracting resources to provide our customers an opportunity for a prototype, prognostic analysis algorithms for new and legacy systems that do not yet embed predictive algorithms, meeting the cost and schedule needs of the customer.
Watch our YouTube Videos
(examples of YouTube search words to find our videos include: len losik, PHM, CBM, predictive science and mental illness):
1. The 2013 ISMI SEMATECH Manufacturing Week's Keynote Address on PHM and Condition-based Maintenance (CBM), the Manufacturing Week was held at the Hilton Convention Center, Woodland Hills California:
2. Why Military Satellites and Rockets Fail and How to Stop them from Failing using PHM at:
3. The video recorded at the Naval Post Graduate School in Monterey California on using Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) to Measure Military (and commercial and NASA) Launch Vehicle and satellite Equipment Remaining Usable Life at:
4. and about Condition-Based Maintenance, Systems Engineering Methodolgy and the Systems Engineering Process used to design a nuclear survivable satellite Telemetry, Tracking & Commanding (TT&C) mobile, modular RF ground station at:
5. Our video recorded at the Mental Health Client Action Network (MHCAN) in Santa Cruz Ca. for using predictive science to predict, prevent and recover from mental illness on NASA's deep space missions is at:
Probabilistic reliability results is the likelihood of success or failure, which is unrelated to real world measureable usable life.
Prognostic technology was created by companies wanting to identify the products or equipment that were going to fail prematurely that often frustrates customers and reduces profits.
100% "measured" reliability means that equipment and products have had their reliability, physically measured invasively, using prognostic/predictive algorithms.
Prognostic algorithms illustrate the presence of the early signs of premature failure/aging also known in different industries by a variety of other lables such as accelerated aging, prognostic markers, prognostic identifiers, failure precursors, deterministic behavior, cannot duplicates (CND), no failure found (NFF), no failure identified (NFI) and retest-OK (RTOK).
We offer the only space-flight proven, predictive algorithms for equipment and products working in a full RF and/or electrical noise environment that corrupts the integrity of the engineering data. Our algorithms are used for completing a prognostic (scientific) analysis to measure and confirm equipment remaining usable life with certainty.
It is the engineering analysis (including risk analysis, risk mitigation, failure analysis, FMEA, worse case failure analysis etc.) that allows the use of speculation and conjecture in the results that is used today in almost all industries. The results from the engineering analysis and probability ananlysis has created the reactive paradigm we have today allowing catastriophic failures to occur that can now be prevented using PHM.
PREDICTIVE SCIENCE & PHM HAS MULTI-INDUSTRY APPLICATIONS
Space Medicine: Space medicine combines many medical specialties to examine the effects of spaceflight on humans and uses PHM to prevent rather than react to problems associated with living in the unique, isolated, and extreme hazardous environment of space. Medical, scientific, and engineering teams work together to maintain the physical, mental, and social well-being of humans in space and upon return to Earth.
PHM is used in a predictive space medicine program to predict, prevent and recover from mentall illness acquired by astronauts in low earth orbit or on deep space missions.
Civilian Mental Health Industry: PHM technology is employed to measure equipment remaining usable life also identifies that a person's fight-or-flight response (FOFR) causes behavior disorders and serious mental illnesses along with the right environmental conditions, and that PHM can be used to predict, prevent and recover from behavior disorders and serious mental illness.
Police: Predictive policing is used by cities with less police personnel than desired. Both Santa Cruz and Los Angeles California have adopted a vigorous predictive policing program with great success. Predictive policing is the future of police work but was not tried until the financial crisis forced cities to drastically reduce their police force. Itis based on the anlysis of past crimes, their location and time of day, officers are assigned locations with the highest likelihood of a crime occurring. Predictive policing entails becoming less reactive and more proactive. The predictive vision moves law enforcement from focusing on what has happened to focusing on what will happen and how to deploy resources in front of crime effectively, thereby changing outcomes.
Predictive Medicine: Predictive diagnostics using a prognostic analysis predicts when future disease will occur with certainty, so that health care professionals and the patient can be proactive in instituting lifestyle modifications and increased physician surveillance. Predictive medicine is intended not for those with disease but for individuals or those that have not yet acquired a disease. Its purpose is to determine whether a disease will occurand if if so chnages can be implemented to stop the disease from occurring. Predictive medicine is the next level of a proactive medical program, designed to stop disease and illness before they occur thus lowering the total medical cost of a nation by eliminating disease through predictive diagnostics techniques.
Semi-Conductor Industry: Product reliability is measured before shipping with a prognostic analysis or embedded algorithms so that the company will know with certainty that their products left the factory fully operational and will function normally for at least one year. Companies that are selling assemblies with several chips that are integrated into other equipment can stop returns, by ensuring that their products do not fail prematurely.
Telecommunications Industry: Companies that produce high-reliability (99.999% availability) public telephone switching network (PTSN) embedded computer servers use prognostic technology to identify the internal PTSN computer server equipment that will be failing in the near future for replacement. This allows the high companies such as Avaya, AT&T and Verizon to meet the stringent industry wide 99.999% availability requirement because equipment that is replaced before it fails is not considered a failure.
Aerospace & Space Industries:
Our predictive algorithms were developed for use on legacy equipment requiring a prognostic analysis to be done manually by personnel trained in completing a scientific analysis. The results illustrate the presence of premature aging in normal appearing engineering data from fully functional equipment.
For over 30 years we achieve a 5% accuracy in our remaining-usable-life determinations using our proprietary approach.
The $55M GPS Block 1 MEO Satellite was the First We used Predictive Algorithms Manually, On-Board Telemetry and Ground Data to Predict Rubidium Atomic Frequency Standard Failures and then all Subsystem Failures (circa 1980)
Today, companies are embedding data-driven and model-based prognostic algorithms in equipment so that products and equipment can self prognose their remaining usable life. This offers a new paradigm in maintenance we call condition-based maintenenace, decreasing life cycle cost while increasing reliability to near perfect.
The $90M INTELSAT VIIA Geostationary Commercial Communications Satellite was the First Commercial Satellite Designed to be Used with PHM by the President of Failure Analysis in 1987.
Satellites and launch vehicles of all types still suffer from premature equipment failures getting to space and working in space. These often result in severe financial losses. Today's satellites and launch vehicle were not designed to use prognostic technology but our data-driven prognostic algorithms were developed specifically to search the space vehicle factory test data to identify the on-board equipment that will fail prematurely for replacement by conducting a prognostic analysis of the data. A prognostic analysis is a scientific analysis that illustrates the prognostic markers that indicate the unit will fail prematurely.
For satellites and spacecraft already in space, a prognostic analysis using equipment telemetry will identify the equipment that will be failing within one year of the analysis, stopping surprise equipment failures that often remove spacecraft from service allowing equipment failures to be managed to a positive conclusion.
For satellites that use "single string" equipment, a prognostic analysis completed while the equipment is still on the ground will identify the equipment that will fail prematurely after arriving on orbit for replacement, eliminating the risk for quicker, faster, better, cheaper missions.
The first F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter took off on its initial test flight from Lockheed Martin in Fort Worth, Texas on 12:44 December 15, 2006 piloted by the program's Chief Pilot Jon Beesley. The aircraft was airborne 35 minutes on its maiden flight. the jet lifted off and began a climb-out to 15,000 feet.
The Lockheed Martin/Air Force F-35 Joint Strike Fighter is The Fastest, Most Capable, Most Relaible and Lowest Cost Aircraft to Maitain Built using PHM and CBM
An autonomic response is a subconscious reflex that provides a timely reaction to an unforeseen problem. Predictive science used in PHM was developed for equipment to react prior to an event, allowing it to be prevented rather than react to it after it occurs, exceeding our own y's defensive, reactionary system with a proactive, preventive system. Our body’s autonomic nervous system monitors, controls and adjusts our autonomic response to external stimuli but it is still a reactionary system. The F-35 PHM system enables the F-35's Autonomous Logistics that does invaluable and efficient behind-the-scenes monitoring, maintenance and predictive diagnostics to support the aircraft and ensure its 24/7 good health.
On December 15, 2009, Boeing conducted the Dreamliner's maiden flight with the first 787-8, originating from Snohomish County Airport in Everett, Washington, at 10:27 am PST, and landing at Boeing Field in King County, Washington, at 1:35 pm PST.
The Boeing 787 Series of Commercial Aircraft Fully Designed Around PHm and CBM Programs
The Boeing 787 Dreamliner is a long-range, mid-size wide-body, twin-engine jet airliner developed to leverage both PHM for 24/7 operations and CBM for autonomous logistics allowing equipment-to-equipment communications. Due to the employment of PHM, the 787 is the most reliable and fuel-efficient airliner ever produced and the world's first major airliner to use PHM, CBM and composite materials for its airframe. The Dreamliner's distinguishing features include PHM-based electrical and mechanical flight avionics, CBM enabled Autonomous Logistics, a four-panel windshield, noise-reducing nacelles, and a smoother nose contour.
Defense Industry: When soldiers and machines are ordered to start marching, the first actions include the shipping of a majority of their vehicles back to the base for repair. Defense industry can meet the 27 hour requirement for infant mortality failures.
Heavy Equipment Industry: In the large equipment industries , prognostic technology and embedded prognostic algorithms allows the identification of heavy equipment that will be failing in the near future so that it can be replaced at a convenient time. This minimizes equipment downtime that often result in huge financial losses associated with equipment that is unproductive.
Nuclear Power Industry: The equipment used to monitor critical processes in nuclear power plants rely on prognostic algorithms for preventing equipment failures that increase risk and uncertainty in the operations of nuclear power plants that are vital the the community.
Financial and Investment Industries: Prognostic algorithms used in robotrading now replace the stock trader on Wall Street to decide which investment is to be purchased and when it should be sold. Companies using these algorithms report that they are no longer susceptable to the financial losses experieneced using current diagnostic tools and probabalistic data.
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